CMHC - Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook
CMHC expects slow economic growth, weak housing demand, declining home prices, lower housing starts and easing rental markets in 2026. Housing market conditions are expected to improve gradually in 2027 and 2028.
Highlights
We expect the economy to grow slowly in 2026. Stronger underlying activity from consumer spending, government investment and exports will be offset by ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Growth is projected to improve moderately in 2027 and 2028.
Housing activity will likely remain weak in the near term, as very slow population growth, uncertainty, high borrowing costs and modest income growth continue to limit demand. We expect sales to improve gradually over the forecast period but to remain below levels typically seen in the last decade.
We expect continued downward pressure on home prices and construction. Average prices will likely decline in 2026 and then rise slowly, while housing starts will continue to fall throughout the forecast period due to weak demand, high costs and elevated inventories.
Rental construction is expected to ease gradually from its historical 2025 peak. Rent growth will slow, but rents are still high relative to incomes.
Click on the Link below to find out the details of each of the following
Economic forecast: Slow growth amid uncertainty
Housing forecast: Uneven adjustment to soft housing demand
Alternative scenario
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/summer-update-2026-housing-market-outlook
